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Demand Estimation

We provide the analytical support for the daily estimation of demand and billing responsibilities of Great Britain’s Gas Industry.

We support the Demand Estimation Sub Committee (DESC) with its obligations to produce gas consumption profiles and estimates of peak demand usage.

The Role of Demand Estimation

The Demand Estimation team create parameters for delivering critical processes to Britain’s gas industry, including:

  • Non-Daily Metered Nominations and Allocations
  • Capacity and Commodity Invoicing
  • Annual Quantity Calculation
  • Opening Read Estimation

The DESC parameters are reviewed and approved by the gas industry each summer. They are then loaded into our systems ahead of the upcoming gas year.

This information is then provided for authorised industry use.

Key Demand Estimation Parameters

What we do...

 

In order to...

 

Represented by...

 

For use in...

 

Estimate how consumers typically use their gas during a year

Develop consumer consumption profiles

The Annual Load
Profile (ALP)

Demand Attribution, AQ and opening read estimation

Estimate how gas consumers usage reacts to changes in weather

Understand and define weather sensitivity profiles

The Daily Adjustment Factor (DAF)

 

Demand Attribution, AQ and opening read estimation

Understand how gas consumers will react in the event of extremely cold weather

Understand and estimate peak day demand

 

The Peak Load Factor (PLF)

 

 

Capacity invoicing

 

 

Categorise gas consumers by their different usage patterns

 

Ensure profiles are available for a wide range of consumer types

The End User Category (EUC)

 

 

Demand Attribution, AQ, Capacity invoicing and opening read estimation

Understand and explain the relationship between weather and gas consumption

Produce a variable which we can depend upon as a ‘building block’ for modelling

The Composite Weather Variable (CWV)

 

Demand Attribution, AQ and opening read estimation

 

Define a basis for ‘seasonal normal’ weather

 

 

Enable profiles to be represented at ‘average’ conditions which creates stability for industry

The Seasonal Normal Composite Weather Variable (SNCWV)



Demand Attribution, AQ and opening read estimation

 

 

Typical Timetable for producing Demand Estimation Parameters

Consumption data is collected each April for the previous 12 months, together with actual weather and seasonal normal weather variables. It is this data that is used to create the parameters for the next gas year, which runs from 1st October every year.

Date Activity
Jan / Feb Produce a document which describes how demand models will be formed for upcoming analysis – known as Spring Approach document
Feb Industry Checkpoint: DESC review and approve Spring Approach document
March / April Collect and collate sample data for analysis period (typically 1st April to 31st March) and summarise supply meter points counts by End User Category (EUC)
April Industry Checkpoint: DESC TWG approve sample data aggregations for modelling
April / May Perform modelling using agreed sample data aggregations. Summarise results
May Industry Checkpoint: DESC TWG review and approve modelling results
May / June Using the approved modelling results produce and publish a first draft of all Demand Estimation parameters (ALPs, DAFs, PLFs)
June / July Industry Checkpoint: DESC TWG / DESC and industry review and approve parameters
August Prepare system interface files containing new and approved parameters Update Gemini and UK Link
October New parameters GO LIVE for gas day 1st October
October / December Analyse performance of parameters for previous gas year.
Carry out adhoc analysis in order to improve modelling for the next cycle

 

Join in with Gas Demand Research

Demand Estimation would not be possible without gas demand research and this research is significantly helped by gas consumers.

At the heart of Demand Estimation are the thousands of gas consumers in Britain who volunteer to share their gas consumption information. Safely and securely encrypted, this is the data that is analysed to create the Demand Estimation parameters.

From time to time we need more volunteers to share their consumption data. Get involved with our gas demand research.

The Xoserve Demand Estimation Team

Our Demand Estimation Team is responsible for the analytical activities necessary to produce the parameters on behalf of the DESC.

Email the Demand Estimation Team with any queries, questions or comments.

The Demand Estimation Sub Committee

The Demand Estimation Sub Committee (DESC) oversees the production of parameters and provides its approval for wider industry review.

The DESC is made up of both gas Shippers and Transporters. Its responsibilities are described in Section H of the Uniform Network Code (UNC).

The meetings of DESC are coordinated by the Joint Office of Gas Transporters and can be attended by any industry party. To vote on Demand Estimation matters you will need to be a member of DESC.

Frequently Asked Questions

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